from https://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun/13/irelandIrish voters reject EU treaty
An election offical opens a ballot bag during the count for the Lisbon treaty referendum in Dublin on June 13 2008. Photograph: Peter Muhly/AFP/Getty Images
Irish voters have rejected the Lisbon treaty, the country's justice minister conceded today, in a move which throws the entire project of reshaping the EU into turmoil.
Monitors from the Fianna Fáil party at the main count in Dublin told the Guardian that so far the breakdown in votes showed a 52% to 48% majority for the no camp.
"It looks like this will be a no vote," the justice minister, Dermot Ahern, said. "At the end of the day, for a myriad of reasons, the people have spoken.
"We will have to wait and see what happens in the rest of the countries. Obviously if we are the only one to reject the treaty that will raise questions. We are in uncharted territories."
Unofficial early polls suggested voters in most constituencies voted against the Lisbon treaty, the state broadcaster RTE reported. Official results are expected later today.
The no vote was strong in many rural areas and in working-class urban areas, while middle-class areas appeared to be less supportive of the treaty than had been anticipated, RTE said.
Reuters reported that in Dublin, the no camp was ahead in five constituencies and behind in one, while three were evenly split.
Dublin accounts for about a quarter of the country's electorate.
Joan Burton, an Irish Labour MP, said there had been a no majority in her Dublin West constituency.
Speaking at the count, Burton said: "Although there was a lot of misinformation by the no camp in this campaign the message from this result is that whenever the EU draws up a treaty they should make it intelligible to ordinary people.
"That was one of the biggest problems of this campaign – thousands and thousands of people couldn't even understand what the treaty was about."
Antonio Missiroli, director of studies at the European Policy Centre thinktank, said: "This triggers a political crisis in Europe that requires strong leadership in Ireland, in Brussels and elsewhere in Europe.
If the no vote is confirmed later today, the EU is likely to face two options. Either give Ireland an opt out to the treaty or shelve it completely.
Irish government sources said they were "disappointed" at tally predictions of a lower-than-expected yes vote in some constituencies, particularly in rural areas.
The bitter divisions caused by the treaty were visible at the count during ugly scenes involving Ireland's finance minister, Brian Lenihan, and members of Coir, a radical anti-abortion campaign group. Coir opposed the treaty on the grounds that European law could supplant Irish legal bans on abortion – a scenario the Irish government consistently said was impossible.
As the minister attempted to speak to a television news crew he was surrounded by Coir activists who screamed at him and sang: "No, no, there's no no, there's no Lisbon" to the tune of 2Unlimited's No limits.
When Burton attempted to intervene and point out that the minister had a right to speak she was spat at.
Analysts earlier said the turnout of around 40% could tip the balance towards a no vote, bringing about the demise of the controversial and poorly understood pact.
All 27 EU countries have to ratify the Lisbon treaty for it to be passed meaning voters in Ireland – the only country to hold a referendum on the issue – can veto the negotiations. Detractors suggest the treaty is an EU constitution in all but name.
When polls closed last night, RTE reported that voter turnout had failed to exceed 45%.
The Lisbon treaty seeks to reshape EU institutions and powers in line with the bloc's rapid growth in recent years to 27 nations and 495 million people. It proposes many of the same reforms as the EU's previous master plan - a constitution that French and Dutch voters rejected in 2005.
Only Ireland's 3 million registered voters pose a serious threat to ratification, because the other 26 members require approval through their national parliaments.
So far, more than a dozen EU members have ratified it, including the parliaments of Estonia, Finland and Greece on Wednesday, but others have held back while awaiting the Irish referendum result.
The Irish government, major opposition parties and business leaders all campaigned for a yes vote during a month-long campaign that emphasised Ireland's strong benefits from 35 years of EU membership.
The prime minister, Brian Cowen, said he had led the campaign for Irish ratification "as best as I possibly could", and accused anti-treaty voters of spreading lies and distortions.
Pressure groups from the far left and right claimed that the treaty would result in Ireland losing control of everything from its business tax rates to its ban on abortion. Cowen and most of the political establishment branded such claims as nonsense.
Many voters said they did not understand the treaty's implications well enough, and were essentially voting on whether they felt happy with Ireland's place in Europe.
"Ireland would still be the economic basket case of Europe without the EU. We should be doing everything we can to help EU institutions function better, because all the evidence shows they function in our interest," said a pro-treaty voter, accountant Padraig Walsh.
But others complained that the EU's near-doubling in size since 2004 had brought unwelcome change to Ireland, particularly more than 200,000 jobseekers from Poland and the Baltic states who now snap up a majority of available jobs.
"I feel like a foreigner in my own land. There's been too much change, too quick," said anti-treaty voter Eugene Leary, a laid-off construction worker who has turned to part-time taxi work to make ends meet.
"You don't mean to be a bigot or a racist. But you would like to see your country keep control of its identity, and make sure your own people are being looked after first. That's just not happening."
Many no voters said they were annoyed that the Lisbon treaty contains largely the same reform goals as the rejected constitution, and expressed solidarity with the voters of France and the Netherlands who dumped that document.
go on the irish!
